Been a while

Since my last post I've been, well, effectively break-even... PLO style.

Ran up to like $4.1k mostly playing Cap, then played a little regular 200PLO to finish clearing my bonus, somehow managing to run 2 BI below equity in like 80 hands.

Ended up putting money on Cake, found out Cake is rigged. Dropped 10 buy-ins instantly to some of the worst players I've ever seen. I started out trying to play on Cake like I play on FTP (Aggro) which just doesn't work when you get called down by any two pair, or by sets on 3-flush boards. A more passive, abc wait-for-good-hands strategy is necessary.

God I hate Cake.

The software's pretty ugly, it's not PT/HEM compatible, the server's slow, and I run like absolute dogshit. As soon as I'm able to withdraw my money in like 6 minutes I'll do it and head over to UB. I just can't enjoy playing on Cake.

Luckily to keep my head above water I've been crushing the games on FTP. Played the HA tables a lot, those are fun, definitely attract some fish. Today's session was interesting. I thought I played extremely nitty (played like 16/12 COMBINED in the two games over a ~700 hand sample, I have no idea how that happened) and had to get lucky to win like $150. Also ran into a disgusting hand that I'm not likely to forget soon, detailed below. Overall that session ended quite disappointing for me, and I was left feeling quite empty.

I came back a couple of hours later to see 6 Cap PLO games running, so I decided to sit... in all six. I don't know why I do this sometimes. I know that anything above 4 tables makes me play awful. I just don't have time to think and pretty much go with every hand. I mean, I ran bad since I should have won a few of the hands where I was a 2:1 underdog, but I was playing quite poorly. Ended the cap session down $500. Luckily I then made back $400 playing the 100BB tables.

PLO's version of break-even. It seems pretty absurd comparing PLO and NL graphs, there's just SO much more variance in Omaha. The 5-6 BI downswings are just blips on the radar. Then again I am the proud owner of this NL superswong:



The hand I mentioned above can be found here. Absolutely horrific spot IMO.

Cap PLO

I've broken my promise to post interesting PLO hands because, well, I've taken to playing Cap PLO lately. If you're not familiar with this, it's just PLO with 40BB effective stacks. This does not allow for a lot of interesting spots. However, I've taken to it quite nicely:



These games are just so so so soft. Normal PLO games are soft, but at least you'll run into some good players. There are just no regs at these games (until now). I run like 21/15 at normal PLO, but I'm running 30/24 - about 45% VPIP on the button - at these games. They're infinitely loose/passive and put up absolutely no fight post-flop - as you can see, I'm crushing at non-showdown.

Winning at Cap PLO requires relentless aggression and a very good knowledge of equity. Players don't know either. I really don't blame them for not understanding equities... I didn't either until I did a lot of work on it lately. I think the lack of PLO on TV is 100% to blame for this. I don't know about you, but I watch a ton of poker on TV, and it's because of that, and not Pokerstove and such that I have such a good knowledge of NL equity. Without doing the research, you're just going to be forced into a guessing game.

I'm about 1500-2000 hands away from clearing my last FTP bonus, which should be done on Monday. When that happens, I'll leave $500-$600 in my account for other commitments, get a 6-month CR membership from the store, and I'm going to start on the rest of my bonus-whoring adventure. I'll start off with Cake and Pokerheaven's $500 deposit bonus simultaneously. I don't think either site has enough PLO games running for me, so I'll need two sites, and either way that should save me time with bank transfers and such. Making $1k off of bonus and likely another $500 or so off of rakeback is going to be sweet next month.

I've started off the year so hot I should probably re-evaluate all my goals. I was very pessimistic with my $1k goal for January - combing poker, rakeback and bonuses, I've made about $3k so far. That will increase my year's earning exponentially and I assume I can shatter the $15k goal I suggested. I hoped to finish the year at 2/4, but I don't think it's unreasonable to think that I could be playing 5/10 by the end of the year.

Oh, here's one hand I find interesting. This was the first time villain had raised in ~80 hands or so, so I decided he almost certainly had AA** or KK**. His bet on the flop seems to say the same thing, thinking along the lines of "I have a set but don't want to c/c a big bet so here's my price". I could have raised here, but that's a little marginal. His turn bet was also kinda weakish, so I decided to call and re-evaluate in position.

On the river, I have a bluffcatcher against a very tight opponent, which doesn't seem like a great situation. However, given my read that he has AA** or KK**, with the Ad and Kd on the board, his other two cards have to be exactly Qxdd or Jxdd for him to be potting for value, and I have three of the remaining 10 diamonds myself, so I snap him off.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 $40 Cap Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 3 players - View hand 17824

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



SB: $106.75

Hero (BB): $207.00

BTN: $1553.80



Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with 7 6 8 4

1 fold, SB raises to $3, Hero calls $2



Flop: ($6.00) 2 K A (2 players)

SB bets $3, Hero calls $3



Turn: ($12.00) T (2 players)

SB bets $8, Hero calls $8



River: ($28.00) J (2 players)

SB bets $26, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $26



Final Pot: $80.00

SB shows 9 K K 9 (three of a kind, Kings)

Hero shows 7 6 8 4 (a flush, Ace high)

Hero wins $79.00

(Rake: $1.00)

PLOL

Played my longest session in a while, and it was an interesting one:



Shipped 5 buyins and then climbed back to a 1/2 buyin winner in 769 hands... standard 4 BB/100 session I guess. There are a lot of positives to gain from this session:

1. I've started to win, or at least break even at non-showdown in my last few PLO sessions.
2. I shipped 5 buyins with minimal - although not nonexistent - signs of tilt.
3. I played a long (for me) session and didn't lose focus as it wore on, instead I played even better down the line.

Now for your viewing entertainment, a couple of hands without much strategic content, but they do show just how sick I am. Some nice bluffs:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 5 players - View hand 10370

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



UTG: $187.45

CO: $332.15

BTN: $177.50

Hero (SB): $100.00

BB: $407.05



Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with J 7 5 8

1 fold, CO raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11.50, 1 fold, CO calls $8



Flop: ($24.00) 2 9 A (2 players)

Hero bets $16, CO calls $16



Turn: ($56.00) 8 (2 players)

Hero checks, CO bets $28, Hero raises to $72.50 all in, CO requests TIME, CO folds



Final Pot: $112.00

Hero wins $109.00

(Rake: $3.00)




Now, if I didn't go for this next one I just don't deserve to play PLO. An absolutely perfect time to go for the naked ace bluff, since I just look so so strong... the call pre-flop sucked, but I thought the ace was suited instead of everything else. Also, I think the flop raise should've been smaller, like $44, since that's what I'd do if I had it.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 5 players - View hand 10372

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



SB: $176.95

BB: $292.70

UTG: $425.55

CO: $206.70

Hero (BTN): $131.50



Pre Flop: ($1.00) Hero is BTN with A Q 5 T

BB calls $1, UTG raises to $4, CO calls $4, Hero calls $4, SB calls $3, BB calls $3



Flop: ($20.00) 9 2 4 (5 players)

SB bets $3, BB calls $3, UTG raises to $15, CO folds, Hero raises to $60, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds



Final Pot: $56.00

Hero wins $53.20

(Rake: $2.80)

Very short session

Played a little this afternoon, finished up 1.2 BI, and experienced something new: The combination of being to the right of someone who is 3betting so light that it makes sense to 4bet light (light, in PLO terms, meaning anything but AA**) AND the opportunity to do so.

This is not something that you'll run into a lot at small stakes - many players don't even RAISE anything but AA** let alone 3bet wider than that - but occasionally you'll run into some 60/40 type who'll be ramming it up, or a good LAG reg. Obviously, 4betting light will be HUGE variance. The first type of player will very very rarely fold to a 4bet (I don't want to say never, but yeah never), while the reg will often only be folding a KK**ds hand. You'll then be forced to play shove 'n' pray on any flop.

It's certainly more profitable to play against ultra-passive opponents, but it sure is a hell of a lot more fun to play in an aggressive game. Here's my 2 light 4-bets today (keeping in mind I only played 140 hands). Both of these villains certainly fall under the spewtard category... and by the way, I run kinda good.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 5 players - View hand 8454

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



BB: $160.80

UTG: $100.50

Hero (CO): $108.15

BTN: $164.20

SB: $289.15



Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 4 Q K K

1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN raises to $6, 1 fold, BB calls $5, Hero raises to $24.50, BTN calls $18.50, BB calls $18.50



Flop: ($74.00) J 8 2 (3 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $74, BTN raises to $139.70 all in, BB folds, Hero calls $9.65 all in



Turn: ($241.30) T (2 players - 2 are all in)



River: ($241.30) A (2 players - 2 are all in)



Final Pot: $241.30

H

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 5 players - View hand 8455

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



BTN: $200.55

SB: $20.00

BB: $168.70

Hero (UTG): $100.00

CO: $112.80



Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Q K K 9

Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BTN raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero raises to $37.50, BTN calls $25.50



Flop: ($76.50) J A A (2 players)

Hero bets $62.50 all in, BTN folds



Final Pot: $76.50

Hero wins $73.50

(Rake: $3.00)

January has been good to me...

January has been quite nice. I'm up over $1k... don't know the exact amount, but it's probably around $1.2k. Got my roll up to the point where I was happy taking a shot at 100NL/PLO - and considering I have a bonus to clear, better sooner than later - and I've kept running well at that level.

I've played about 4.5k hands of NL and 2k hands of PLO so far, but I've shifted more to PLO lately. Since I started playing PLO I've definitely felt it's the more interesting game, and now I'm feeling comfortable that I "understand" PLO finally. I can't really say if I'm a better PLO player than NL, but PLO players are so much worse that I feel it's probably my most profitable game right now.

For anybody following, I'll be updating more often with interesting hands and such, probably exclusively PLO. I've been whoring out the virtues of PLO on the Cardplayer forums, and maybe this will help to get people interested! Here'a a taste:

Unfortunately I'm going to start out with a hand where I get stacked. My read on Villain was that he was a solid player, running 25/18 over a 540 hand sample size. He was much more aggressive in late position with an ATS of 46 so I assumed he was raising wide here.

I think the flop is a very marginal and interesting decision, and exemplifies why some (most?) of the time it is better to have top pair+kickers than an over pair. (Bare AA** would be a fold, IMO). I need 36.3% equity to get the money in, so what do we think about his range?

1. Against a bad player, 22** and 44** may be in his range, but I felt that if he was for some reason loose enough to open those hands (I didn't think he was) he would never call a 3bet with them OOP. I discounted these from his range.

2. Two pair. For the reasons stated in 1, I didn't figure he'd have Q4 or Q2. I felt the only way this was possible was if he had a very low rundown type like a 2345, 2346 or 2456. Still, against these hands I'm about 39-40%, more than enough.

3. Straight draw or pair+straight draw. Definitely in his range. He could definitely raise a low rundown and I figure he'd call with it too, and want to get many in on this flop. This would include hands like 3456, 3457, 2356, 3567, 4567 and 4568. (If those last two hands look wrong to you, keep in mind that on this board they are a combined is 45.6% against AA** on this board). Against that range, I'm 50/50.

4. Similar hands to mine. Mid-high connecting cards with a Q in them should like this board. He could easily be check-raising a hand like QJT9 here thinking that I might fold AA** (which I would), and that if I didn't it wouldn't be the end of the world (QJT9 specifically is 35% against AA** on this board). I crush these types of hands, roughly a 3:1 favourite.

5. QQ. Obviously the death hand, and the reason this isn't an insta-shove; I'm 10% against QQ**. I believe that good players would fold all but the best QQ** hands to a 3bet OOP (and mostly IP as well), but a lot of players with seemingly reasonable stats would do something spewy like flat AQQ7 pre-flop, so I do think a lot of QQ is in his range. However, I have a queen, so there are only two left, so I think this makes up only a small part of his range.

Against this range I think I'm well ahead of the equity I need, so I shoved. He actually had a much raggier hand than I expected, but I still had 46%. I couldn't draw out and he won... this time.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 7433

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



BTN: $131.30

SB: $193.25

BB: $185.25

UTG: $353.30

MP: $101.50

Hero (CO): $100.00



Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with A T Q K

1 fold, MP raises to $3.50, Hero raises to $12, 3 folds, MP calls $8.50



Flop: ($25.50) 2 4 Q (2 players)

MP checks, Hero bets $15.90, MP raises to $73.20, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $88 all in, MP calls $14.80



Turn: ($201.50) 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)



River: ($201.50) 7 (2 players - 1 is all in)



Final Pot: $201.50
Seat 3: TheSlinger showed [4s Qd Kd Ks] and won ($238.30) with a straight, Ace high
Seat 4: Wallaceman (button) showed [Th 2h 8s 7c] and lost with two pair, Tens and Eights

MP shows 2 3 J 4 (two pair, Fours and Twos)

Hero shows A T Q K (a pair of Queens)

MP wins $198.50

(Rake: $3.00)

Update/Year in Review/2009 Outlook

Didn't post all of December, a lot to get to.

December wasn't much of an improvement over November. I think I was about break even. Stopped shortstacking. With only 20 BBs, it's very hard to beat the blinds... you're just not going to win enough big pots. Grinding out 10k hands/week breaking even to collect the rakeback cheque isn't something I'm interested in.

Got the HEM trial just to see how bad I've been running over the last couple of months. Combined between NL and PLO, I'm well over 5.5k below equity in the last couple of months. It's rough, completely destroyed my game. It's really sad that after what I've been through pokerwise since September, I've come out of it breakeven and a worse player... Dropped all the way down to 50NL.

The good news is that I'm starting to pinpoint a lot of the places I'm going wrong.

First of all, I'm realizing just how much work I have to put in to my PLO game. I've done a lot of equity simulations and such, and definitely picked out a lot of my leaks. Also have to work on playing more pots in position and avoiding playing out of position... my position stats are far too 'flat'.

Tons of stuff to work on in NL. Like PLO, my position stats are too flat. My red line in both games has just completely gone to hell, and there are some sub-categories on things I have to work on about that that I'll talk about below. Also, I really have to stop randomly spazzing out.

Goals:

2009:
1. Finish the year at least a 400NL/400PLO reg
2. First, I think I need to stop sucking at PLO
3. $15k
4. Fix tilt/focus issues
5. Become an awesome bonus *****

January:
1. Deposit and clear CD Poker bonus
2. Grind out a free month of CR
3. Are those two combined going to be a lot of hands?
4. Don't play more than 4 tables at a time, preferably less
5. No watching TV and stuff while playing
6. Work on the red line
7. $1k
8. Watch these PLO vids saved on my computer

Certainly doable IMO. I went from $44 on March 10th to $8k and taking 400NL shots in October. Had to run superhot to do it, but I have a lot of other advantages that I didn't have. First, I'll be starting with like $1500 and not $44. I'll have 12 months instead of 8 months. I'll have rakeback all year instead of just for the last 2.5 months. I've fixed problems I had depositing and now I'll be able to bonus whore all over the place... going to start with $200 bonuses on CD Poker and Titan, after that I'll evaluate my BR and probably go after the bigger ones on places like UB and FTP. Playing cash instead of SnGs and MTTs is hopefully going to be more profitable.

I'll also be a much better player. I have a ton of resources I didn't have to start out with... forums are a big help (although TBH they might be a hindrance to now). I'm obviously a CR member now, and that's very very +EV. I know how to think about NL right now. My game has a lot of holes in both NL and PLO, but at least now I have the means to fix them.

Will need to work on the 'other' side of the game. I certainly have some issues to work on. I do believe in aggressive BR management for the most part, but I took it too far. When I was playing 400NL with an $8k BR (which is fine) I would often be sitting 250BB deep against regs (which is not fine). I'm a complete tiltmonkey and I need to fix that, although I'm not sure how.

The biggest mental issue I need to work on is focus. I'll often be watching TV or surfing the internet or be distracted in some way while I'm playing, and that has to stop. (Music probably doesn't help, but I can't imagine playing without it). I also think that rakeback has hurt me a lot. In my upswing my MT ratio was about 2.5, then I got rakeback. (Seriously, getting rakeback is just about the point right between my upswing and downswing). Then, my MT ratio was about 4.5. I feel pressured to play more tables than I should, and I just tell myself that rakeback and volume will make up for the EV I'm giving up. It doesn't. I'm 18, have a high IQ and have played video games all my life, but mass-tabling isn't for me for whatever reason. It also completely fucks up my non-showdown winnings.

So, here's to 2009 being a much better year than 2008.

<-- Ratholer

Nitted up. Didn't help a whole lot, lost a couple of buy-ins.

Really, I've lost all confidence in my game right now, and for good reason. It's 100% true that I've run awfully in this downswing. Nobody would deny that if they saw it. However, even if I ran average, I don't know if I would be a break-even player, if that. Looking at some of the big hands I lost... well, there's a whole lot of "WTF were you thinking you fucking donk" moments.

There's just something about the online game that completely destroys my focus. I can't explain it. I get distracted very very easily... plus the lack of real time to make a decision makes things much much harder for me.

With the way I'm playing right now, the frame of mind I'm in and the distractions I have (ex. exam time) I have no confidence in my ability to be a winning online NL 6-max player. I no longer have the bankroll to feel comfortable playing PLO or HUNL. (I will always feel I have an edge in these games if I can afford it).

The solution is my latest experiment, shortstacking. In the last two days, after working out some rough math, I've played roughly 4750 hands mass-tabling, mostly 100NL. I broke even over that stretch despite continuing to run brutally (more on that below), but because I'm putting in way more volume than I ever have before, I've made $100 in rakeback over that time. Even if I run at 1 PtBB/100 and play only 10K hands a week at 100NL... with rakeback that's still ~$450 a week. I'll take it.

Even when I get my BR back to where I'm comfortable I may continue shortstacking just because it's so gosh darn fun. I always assumed that SSing would be a dull, boring style of poker, and maybe it will be eventually. However, right now playing flippaments on a dozen tables is pretty awesome.

Here's how I ran today.
In 1355 hands, I played 27 hands that finished +/- $18 or more. I won 12 and lost 15.
The 12 hands I won, I averaged +$25.7 (I played some 200NL). In these hands I was the dominant favourite 7 times, was flipping 3 times, was dominated 0 times, one was a 60/40 and 1 was a 3-bet bluff on the flop w/ an OESD against a maniac.

In the 15 hands I lost, I averaged - $36.46. In these hands I was a dominant favourite 3 times, was flipping 5 times, was dominated 4 times, was 60/40 favourite 1 time, 1 was where I bluffed off some money PoF after I had gotten deeper than normal, and 1 where I had to 3bet/fold (again, a lil deeper than normal).

I made a couple of mistakes that I can't afford to make when my strat is so marginally profitable anyways, but I feel pretty happy about how I'm playing my shortstack. (And how other people play shortstacks! Good lord!). We'll see how it goes.

Oh yeah, and I found myself playing some HULHE today, but got out losing only $35.

Good news: I got Chinese Democracy, the new GnR album, and I had pretty low expectations but it's fucking awesome. Listened to it 4 times since Friday. Put it right up there w/ Appetite for Destruction IMO.