Wednesday, January 14, 2009

January has been good to me...

January has been quite nice. I'm up over $1k... don't know the exact amount, but it's probably around $1.2k. Got my roll up to the point where I was happy taking a shot at 100NL/PLO - and considering I have a bonus to clear, better sooner than later - and I've kept running well at that level.

I've played about 4.5k hands of NL and 2k hands of PLO so far, but I've shifted more to PLO lately. Since I started playing PLO I've definitely felt it's the more interesting game, and now I'm feeling comfortable that I "understand" PLO finally. I can't really say if I'm a better PLO player than NL, but PLO players are so much worse that I feel it's probably my most profitable game right now.

For anybody following, I'll be updating more often with interesting hands and such, probably exclusively PLO. I've been whoring out the virtues of PLO on the Cardplayer forums, and maybe this will help to get people interested! Here'a a taste:

Unfortunately I'm going to start out with a hand where I get stacked. My read on Villain was that he was a solid player, running 25/18 over a 540 hand sample size. He was much more aggressive in late position with an ATS of 46 so I assumed he was raising wide here.

I think the flop is a very marginal and interesting decision, and exemplifies why some (most?) of the time it is better to have top pair+kickers than an over pair. (Bare AA** would be a fold, IMO). I need 36.3% equity to get the money in, so what do we think about his range?

1. Against a bad player, 22** and 44** may be in his range, but I felt that if he was for some reason loose enough to open those hands (I didn't think he was) he would never call a 3bet with them OOP. I discounted these from his range.

2. Two pair. For the reasons stated in 1, I didn't figure he'd have Q4 or Q2. I felt the only way this was possible was if he had a very low rundown type like a 2345, 2346 or 2456. Still, against these hands I'm about 39-40%, more than enough.

3. Straight draw or pair+straight draw. Definitely in his range. He could definitely raise a low rundown and I figure he'd call with it too, and want to get many in on this flop. This would include hands like 3456, 3457, 2356, 3567, 4567 and 4568. (If those last two hands look wrong to you, keep in mind that on this board they are a combined is 45.6% against AA** on this board). Against that range, I'm 50/50.

4. Similar hands to mine. Mid-high connecting cards with a Q in them should like this board. He could easily be check-raising a hand like QJT9 here thinking that I might fold AA** (which I would), and that if I didn't it wouldn't be the end of the world (QJT9 specifically is 35% against AA** on this board). I crush these types of hands, roughly a 3:1 favourite.

5. QQ. Obviously the death hand, and the reason this isn't an insta-shove; I'm 10% against QQ**. I believe that good players would fold all but the best QQ** hands to a 3bet OOP (and mostly IP as well), but a lot of players with seemingly reasonable stats would do something spewy like flat AQQ7 pre-flop, so I do think a lot of QQ is in his range. However, I have a queen, so there are only two left, so I think this makes up only a small part of his range.

Against this range I think I'm well ahead of the equity I need, so I shoved. He actually had a much raggier hand than I expected, but I still had 46%. I couldn't draw out and he won... this time.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 7433

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



BTN: $131.30

SB: $193.25

BB: $185.25

UTG: $353.30

MP: $101.50

Hero (CO): $100.00



Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with A T Q K

1 fold, MP raises to $3.50, Hero raises to $12, 3 folds, MP calls $8.50



Flop: ($25.50) 2 4 Q (2 players)

MP checks, Hero bets $15.90, MP raises to $73.20, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $88 all in, MP calls $14.80



Turn: ($201.50) 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)



River: ($201.50) 7 (2 players - 1 is all in)



Final Pot: $201.50
Seat 3: TheSlinger showed [4s Qd Kd Ks] and won ($238.30) with a straight, Ace high
Seat 4: Wallaceman (button) showed [Th 2h 8s 7c] and lost with two pair, Tens and Eights

MP shows 2 3 J 4 (two pair, Fours and Twos)

Hero shows A T Q K (a pair of Queens)

MP wins $198.50

(Rake: $3.00)

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